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“Heard on the Web” Media Intelligence
Courtesy of BoSacks and The Precision Media Group
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www.bosacks.com [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne8vLR5NMf5q-_w3I_h6Lasy43p05tTlncm4FKcKpb9DFpWuA-Jm3P_5dOGHQHQUdN1BdRIt4wUrvfji2-1G5pd-_sTP3FHIomO5QM7T_fov8g==]
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More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads
to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we
have the wisdom to choose correctly.
Woody Allen (1935 – ), My Speech to the Graduates
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Here’s Why Google and Facebook Might Completely Disappear in the Next 5 Years
Eric Jackson, Forbes Contributor
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/04/30/heres-why-google-and-facebook-might-completely-disappear-in-the-next-5-years/
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne8yZJhoWzBrJHJ4ANBcnI25CNI1lzgKd8cHYqey7VOVbjsrb4R_gJ36Os6Rq-fBE6BRJv7fH9LTkrSsjJtiGj21kYeodXT8fb8sM88xFQn56R0Axnz7bEMHDmxEuTOD-QY7Iw6S1ei0Gzz2BlJ1l1xSd7cz3D3Lku9Ggr74D6oelqyvvOfgJShFl5ccc_nirPXUdtFj2dsTKhyiNiKqt9du6cwyKcbm_oGiW16EUAhV8HsbUSVlaN5g2ooF97c9onc=]
We think of Google [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne8TW3zMNibmcZhfQ0V3oUaaaNMEOTNeNqwEr2Z_TgGx56KrrZzAHSRKEZeiawWLVf-n0tiYyi4aTosmxk91ipzM6fi-GR5DUJobhc6DwXa8Vl94CQyytUj7JslXBf6OEO8=]
and Facebook as Web gorillas. They’ll be around forever. Yet, with the rate that
the tech world is moving these days, there are good reasons to think both might
be gone completely in 5 – 8 years. Not bankrupt gone, but MySpace gone. And there’s
some academic theory to back up that view, along with casual observations from recent
history.
When I was a PhD student 15 years ago, I studied with Don Hambrick who is a scholar
known for a career showing the effects of management teams and directors (for good
and for ill) on their organizations’ strategies and performance. One of the central
tenents of this school of thought on organizations is that senior teams and directors
have an outsized influence on organizational outcomes. What’s more, their backgrounds
(including education and career paths) have a big effect on how they see the world,
various competitive situations and the choices they make.
There’s another school of thought which takes the opposite view called population
ecology or organizational ecology which put forward that managers don’t really matter
all that much. This view grew out of sociologists who’d taken to study organizations
in the 1970s. They assert that organizational outcomes have much more to do with
industry effects than who the CEO is and the choices he or she makes. They study
birth and death rates of populations of organizations, as well as the effects of
age, competition and resources in the surrounding environment on an organization’s
birth and death rate. Most of these organizational ecology scholars come out of
the University of California at Berkeley.
As a graduate student, I didn’t have much time for this ecology line of thinking.
I believed in the power of the individual executive to overcome all challenges
in the external environment. We can always point to dynamic CEOs as case studies,
even though the sociologists would say those are the equivalent of celebrating the
smarts of lottery winners.
As I age and watch what’s happening in the world of technology and mobile, I can’t
stop thinking of these ecologists though.
More and more in tech, it seems that your long-term viability as a company is dependent
on when you were born.
Think of the differences between generations and when we talk about how the Baby
Boomers behave differently from Gen X’ers and additional differences with the Millennials.
Each generation is perceived to see the world in a very unique way that translates
into their buying decisions and countless other habits.
In the tech world, we’ve really had 3 generations:
* Web 1.0 (companies founded from 1994 – 2001, including Netscape, Yahoo [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne8Ema9P7GKcJsybQGQy_oXxzJTooPOvx8SjzjLyYz4v9cvv0HWWOOOKOE6QLZx9ygGhKt_-hUzFuTtZ_gzYSC5gtQ74-K9__w2hRDbU23mPhCT5RZiIPLkrUrcqkL-eN50=]!
(YHOO), AOL (AOL), Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY)),
* Web 2.0 or Social (companies founded from 2002 – 2009, including Facebook (FB),
LinkedIn (LNKD), and Groupon [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne9cpFhhhE9HwZyc6Q_TC2sCK5cYFzhUpDHvUdTVvk4uoOnp3MskuS3VkdHO-ML9kavZnWv778Z_21KnwlI3aWAY55LzFxKn0-vIqHAq7TKggkNVi6vGWgeTNASzCWqjPhI=](GRPN)),
* and now Mobile [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne_7-g1Y92g1VYXSjk0HjGQipXpnGdQsz_78poZ7vaCbIQ8eNaNAz-xPcOSyrIaVeOuL2b3b8AD5g4tHyIHw0J1aGzg7zABT17O7mBLAyCozRtThbVBVmF_LDDVMpJWAis0=]
(from 2010 – present, including Instagram).
With each succeeding generation in tech, it seems the prior generation can’t quite
wrap its head around the subtle changes that the next generation brings. Web 1.0
companies did a great job of aggregating data and presenting it in an easy to digest
portal fashion. Google did a good job organizing the chaos of the Web better than
AltaVista, Excite, Lycos and all the other search engines that preceded it. Amazon
did a great job of centralizing the chaos of e-commerce shopping and putting all
you needed in one place.
When Web 2.0 companies began to emerge, they seemed to gravitate to the importance
of social connections. MySpace built a network of people with a passion for music
initially. Facebook got college students. LinkedIn got the white collar professionals.
Digg, Reddit, and StumbleUpon showed how users could generate content themselves
and make the overall community more valuable.
Yet, Web 1.0 companies never really seemed to be able to grasp the importance of
building a social community and tapping into the backgrounds of those users. Even
when it seems painfully obvious to everyone, there just doesn’t seem to be the capacity
of these older companies to shift to a new paradigm. Why has Amazon done so little
in social? And Google? Even as they pour billions at the problem, their primary
business model which made them successful in the first place seems to override their
expansion into some new way of thinking.
Social companies born since 2010 have a very different view of the world. These
companies – and Instagram is the most topical example at the moment – view the
mobile smartphone as the primary (and oftentimes exclusive) platform for their application.
They don’t even think of launching via a web site. They assume, over time, people
will use their mobile applications almost entirely instead of websites.
We will never have Web 3.0, because the Web’s dead.
Web 1.0 and 2.0 companies still seem unsure how to adapt to this new paradigm.
Facebook is the triumphant winner of social companies. It will go public in a few
weeks and probably hit $140 billion in market capitalization. Yet, it loses money
in mobile and has rather simple iPhone and iPad versions of its desktop experience.
It is just trying to figure out how to make money on the web – as it only had $3.7
billion in revenues in 2011 and its revenues actually decelerated in Q1 of this
year relative to Q4 of last year. It has no idea how it will make money in mobile.
The failed history of Web 1.0 companies adapting to the world of social suggests
that Facebook will be as woeful at adapting to social as Google has been with its
“ghost town” Google+ initiative last year.
The organizational ecologists talked about the “liability of obsolescence” which
is a growing mismatch between an organization’s inherent product strategy and its
operating environment over time. This probably is a good explanation for what we’re
seeing in the tech world today.
Are companies like Google, Amazon, and Yahoo! obsolete? They’re still growing.
They still have enormous audiences. They also have very talented managers.
But with each new paradigm shift (first to social, now to mobile, and next to whatever
else), the older generations get increasingly out of touch and likely closer to
their significant decline. What’s more, the tech world in which we live in seems
to be speeding up. Tim Cook [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne8BhomfaC6o9GOgZUEcADz7mwZKD0jWDzny211S9Q6eLPythsYFyyxfOHBESrrofCxWs2nSv9OFibCzLR_73PxgKerQ2Q0mSgiQ9yR8AqNWXSH6Za9g1lNToTqLwVyU-aE=]
had an interesting line about the velocity of change in his earnings call last week
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne_BoAHrxYhbvb4LZMa-J_gMujwUDy_QStq4Jh4ahHCmqIeAewoUpXVpKAfhYXR_h_TdhFpkFUJrzJKqw6XFiIRxI_sdvFM5KT2B1Hblyu13tlImNWHxkN9kF7vLmqzxb2Ag_NUefj6VoZGrpxLecxpniwFHj8UnGLpPi7WANRfA6aI32PeK8nccKMM176SH6S6xAG7GkdizcndLCGXE-x4Wm4u06PClzKcTJnqZOMq2BQ==]:
through the last quarter, I should say, which is just 2 years after we shipped the
initial iPad, we’ve sold 67 million. And to put that in some context, it took us
24 years to sell that many Macs and 5 years for that many iPods and over 3 years
for that many iPhones. And we were extremely happy with the trajectory on all of
those products. And so I think iPad, it’s a profound product.
Yahoo is already a shell of its 2000 self. There is increasing chatter (including
from me [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne8zpPXGJDS4-fvujIJz24aD7pSWSOjJdc1kF_67vdv4GGxv0QVRFyCa7pqhji8ITI-sOWV83JG94wH1WBa0OnTV3rhNWKx9MGSfrkH0JVt5cZdLZ7r75NZAL8xFK1MBY2f_ET5vuyHHGjLafUKG6nalibW5zkkpNRJeh07NRp1vIlaTSgyFgY_v7EbAb5D62jk=])
about how Google’s facing a painful multiple contraction, once its desktop search
business (still accounting for the vast majority of its revenues and profits) starts
to fall off a cliff as users dramatically drop traditional search for new ways of
getting information they want in a mobile world. Is Amazon destined to decline?
There seem to be no signs of it today and people will still need to buy stuff
in a mobile world, but the new mobile platform will certainly open the possibilities
for new entrants that Amazon can’t even imagine today.
Facebook is also probably facing a tough road ahead as this shift to mobile happens.
As Hamish McKenzie said last week [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne9195353Irk3CvOrn_qR-KIFa0YOvFlIX_QzAst7pIHrbb_VoV0Eg2OpR-nlNc_T8F8rUQmAbX-wG_itzPiXoX5NCUzI7EfwYAVIoqwECAC4O5Y2G1hSNZ8PRHTMostpmV4rT_DK2HhsRCxfRFADvok48hFcu0gJ2fch6S2qqNp3XcQGu-DStb_],
“I suspect that Facebook will try to address that issue [of the shift to mobile]
by breaking up its various features into separate apps or HTML5 sites: one for
messaging, one for the news feed, one for photos, and, perhaps, one for an address
book. But that fragments the core product, probably to its detriment.”
Considering how long Facebook dragged its feet to get into mobile in the first place
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001ntoOiYn-ne8K2EiuhPAxBkPds2geWF_3dL7T9_QCCFWFSiF4phcW02rj73ktiPP97blYFUf0EKXiXp-0NQahF4aWo2ZFhgMkwtVUkBh2RxMFCJt0zKHdRppHa7vfSMgvQGgEt-vfzhpWeI3_pLBYgoeuWJoCDufC46VkA__slhWoZD2EpNYE25QImLK1PQDeDDBEnP6nwLEkL_LAPELbrDuajNbSJBYPbZtHcyjXbAT7YFi001qq5aSayJrQHd8bI0yaGXsGqSGXcUqv8smSMg==],
the data suggests they will be exactly as slow to change as Google was to social.
Does the Instagram acquisition change that? Not really, in my view. It shows they’re
really fearful of being displaced by a mobile upstart.
However, why would bolting on a mobile app to a Web 2.0 platform (and a very good
one at that) change any of the underlying dynamics we’re discussing here? I doubt
it.
What about Apple? Where does it fit in to this classification scheme?
Apple is really a hardware company, so it’s difficult to put it into a bucket related
to web apps. It certainly seemed very Web 1.0 with its Ping social application.
Yet it’s succeeded in mobile from making the best hardware and software ecosystem
for apps to proliferate on. In some ways, as long as it has a successful iOS platform,
it doesn’t care which Web 1.0, 2.0 and mobile companies fail or succeed on top of
it. Maybe that’s why so many non-mobile companies seem to want to emulate Apple.
Google bought Motorola Mobility (MMI) to get into the hardware business. Facebook
and Baidu (BIDU) are rumored to be launching their own mobile OS.
The bottom line is that the next 5 – 8 years could be incredibly dynamic. It’s
possible that both Google and Facebook could be shells of their current selves -
or gone entirely.
They will have all the money in the world to try and adapt to the shift to mobile
but history suggests they won’t be able to successfully do it. I often hear Google
bulls point to the market share of Android or Eric Schmidt’s hypothesis that Google
could one day charge all Android subscribers $10 a month for value-added services
as proof of future profits. Yet, where are all the great social success stories
by Web 1.0 companies? I imagine we’ll see as many great examples of social companies
jumping horses mid-race to become great mobile companies.
It’s a lot easier to start asking Siri for information instead of typing search
terms into a box compared to thousands of enterprises ceasing to upgrade to the
next version of Windows. Google’s 76% market share. Facebook’s 900 million monthly
users. They just aren’t as sticky as they seem.
And does anyone think the pace of change is going to increase in the next 5 years
versus the last? That we’re going to see fewer innovations, fewer start-ups trying
more stuff on cheaper and more powerful processing power? In all likelihood, we
could have an entirely new way of gathering information and interacting with ads
in a new mobile world than what we’re currently used to today.
The Googles and Facebooks of tomorrow might not even exist today. And several Web
1.0 and 2.0 companies might be completely wiped off the map by then.
Fortunes will be made by those who adapt to and invest in this complete greenfield.
Those who own the future are going to be the ones who create it. It’s all up for
grabs. Web monopolies are not as sticky as the monopolies of old.
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“The Industry that Vents Together
Stays Together”
Responses to all Articles and Bo-Rants are greatly encouraged
and may be included in ” BoSacks Readers Speak Out” =======================================
All news items and the various opinions expressed in this newsletter are not necessarily
the opinion of, nor in agreement with the opinions of BoSacks. They are just interesting
thoughts and other opinions that BoSacks thinks you should know about.
After all, as the Japanese proverb goes:
“If you believe everything you read, perhaps you better not read.”
“Heard on the Web” Media Intelligence:
Courtesy of The Precision Media Group.
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Contact – Robert M. Sacks 518-329-7994
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